Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | UCSD +260 UCR -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -9.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -7.5 (+8.5) | 138.3 (+26.7) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.2 (+8.2) | 139.2 (+25.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -6.8 (+7.8) | 140.0 (+25.0) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -7.8 (+8.8) | 139.2 (+25.8) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 14-8 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 8-4 |
| Home | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 0-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#266) | 5.6 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#308) | 0.34 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#286) | 0.64 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#280) | 0.482 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 27.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 13.4% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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