Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +700 UNLV -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -13.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -10.4 (+7.4) | 142.3 (-11.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -10.3 (+7.3) | 138.2 (-7.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -10.2 (+7.2) | 140.9 (-9.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -9.7 (+6.7) | 141.9 (-10.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UNLV 82 – 75 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UNLV 76 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 71 SJSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNLV 79 – 73 SJSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNLV 68 – 50 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 0-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#340) | -0.2 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#303) | -0.01 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#303) | -0.15 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#321) | 0.485 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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