Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +188 GWEB -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +11 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | GWEB -7.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -5.0 (-6.0) | 138.6 (-11.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -6.3 (-4.7) | 135.1 (-8.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -5.0 (-6.0) | 138.4 (-11.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -4.3 (-6.7) | 139.1 (-12.1) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#309) | -0.4 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#322) | -1.46 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#309) | -1.44 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#265) | 0.470 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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