Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -800 BTLR +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +12 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -10.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -10.0 (+2.0) | 137.8 (-23.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -8.0 (+4.0) | 135.9 (-21.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -10.4 (+1.6) | 138.3 (-24.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -10.1 (+1.9) | 137.8 (-23.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#52) | 1.8 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#47) | 0.51 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#51) | 0.83 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#49) | 0.477 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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