Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -700 ALST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -11.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -9.7 (-0.7) | 133.2 (+7.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -9.0 (+0.0) | 133.1 (+7.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -8.4 (+0.6) | 136.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -9.0 (+0.0) | 133.4 (+7.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-2 | 3-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#303) | -18.3 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#308) | -2.55 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#317) | -3.76 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#261) | 0.376 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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