Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -225 APP +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -5.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -5.5 (+8.5) | 141.1 (+14.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -5.4 (+8.6) | 137.2 (+18.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -5.2 (+8.8) | 141.3 (+14.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -5.8 (+8.2) | 141.6 (+14.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Game Analysis
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