Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | AF -120 UNM +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -2.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -0.6 (-8.6) | 128.9 (+9.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -0.8 (-8.8) | 126.5 (+11.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -0.1 (-8.1) | 129.1 (+8.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -1.0 (-9.0) | 129.9 (+8.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 2-15 |
| Home | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#319) | -11.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#292) | -1.44 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#303) | -1.70 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#303) | 0.419 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 23.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 4.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 15.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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