Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -200 SYR +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -2.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.3 (+10.7) | 149.0 (+7.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.2 (+10.8) | 147.7 (+8.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -3.3 (+10.7) | 150.4 (+5.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.5 (+10.5) | 151.5 (+4.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | DUKE 101 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 6, 2025 | DUKE 83 – 54 SYR |
| Jan 3, 2024 | DUKE 86 – 66 SYR |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DUKE 77 – 55 SYR |
| Mar 10, 2022 | DUKE 88 – 79 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#48) | 10.7 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#72) | 1.69 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#62) | 2.25 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#93) | 0.576 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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