Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | MER -400 CIT +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +36 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MER -8.0 (+28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -6.7 (+29.3) | 157.5 (-17.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -5.3 (+30.7) | 155.9 (-15.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -7.3 (+28.7) | 159.4 (-19.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -6.7 (+29.3) | 157.5 (-17.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#130) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#138) | -0.10 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#130) | -0.12 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#150) | 0.482 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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