Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | AF +100 UNM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +7 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | AF -1.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -0.6 (+6.4) | 129.3 (-12.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -0.1 (+6.9) | 125.9 (-8.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -0.1 (+6.9) | 128.9 (-11.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -0.9 (+6.1) | 129.8 (-12.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 2-15 |
| Home | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#323) | -10.7 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#308) | -1.21 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#308) | -1.48 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#321) | 0.422 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 23.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 4.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 15.6% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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