Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +333 DAY -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +13 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -9.1 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -7.7 (+20.7) | 148.2 (+32.8) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -6.3 (+19.3) | 147.3 (+33.7) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -7.7 (+20.7) | 147.9 (+33.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -7.5 (+20.5) | 149.3 (+31.7) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JOES 81 – 74 DAY |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JOES 73 – 68 DAY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DAY 77 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | DAY 94 – 79 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DAY 60 – 54 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-15 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 3-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.6 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#252) | 6.2 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#273) | 1.10 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#255) | 1.94 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#270) | 0.537 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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