Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | ALCN -240 ALST +198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -5.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -5.2 (+3.8) | 135.9 (-8.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -5.1 (+3.9) | 132.4 (-5.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -4.0 (+5.0) | 137.4 (-10.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -4.9 (+4.1) | 135.2 (-8.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ALCN 77 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ALST 81 – 66 ALCN |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ALCN 67 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | ALST 55 – 53 ALCN |
| Jan 9, 2023 | ALCN 92 – 76 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-3 | 3-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -15.5 (#341) | -18.3 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#311) | -2.59 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#324) | -3.81 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#238) | 0.371 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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