Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -450 MARQ +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +13 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -8.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.5 (-22.5) | 139.7 (+13.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UNC -8.4 (-21.4) | 139.2 (+13.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UNC -10.0 (-23.0) | 141.1 (+11.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.0 (-23.0) | 141.0 (+12.0) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 17, 2022 | UNC 95 – 63 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#30) | 6.2 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#40) | 1.09 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#28) | 1.46 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#26) | 0.507 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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