See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Dean E. Smith Center · February 25, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -9.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money UNC -450 / MARQ +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual MARQ +13 153 Lost
Massey UNC -8.7 (-21.7)
Massey Totals 141.3 (+11.7)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 87%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -9.5 (-22.5) 139.7 (+13.3) 79%
Model 4 ML UNC -8.4 (-21.4) 139.2 (+13.8) 79%
Model 3 ML UNC -10.0 (-23.0) 141.1 (+11.9) 81%
Baseline ML UNC -10.0 (-23.0) 141.0 (+12.0) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 17, 2022 UNC 9563 MARQ

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC MARQ
Overall 18-11 13-14
Conference 10-6 8-11
Home 10-1 7-7
Away 3-7 6-6
Neutral 5-3 0-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.2 69.7
Avg Pts Against 69.9 69.8
Massey 12.6 (#30) 6.2 (#87)
Bradley-Terry 2.16 (#40) 1.09 (#83)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.93 (#28) 1.46 (#83)
RPI 0.601 (#26) 0.507 (#153)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC MARQ
FG% 44.4% 44.5%
3PT% 31.6% 33.3%
REB / G 42.9 36.7
OREB / G 15.1 10.0
AST / TO 1.11 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.7% 50.7%
TOV% 20.0% 20.7%
ORB% 39.8% 30.5%
FT Rate 22.0% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 15.7%
DRB% 75.4% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 18.1% 22.8%

Game Analysis

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