Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -190 MARQ +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +32 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -1.0 (+31.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.0 (+29.0) | 153.0 (+5.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UNC -3.9 (+28.1) | 153.1 (+4.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UNC -1.6 (+30.4) | 153.5 (+4.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.7 (+30.3) | 152.6 (+5.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2021 | MARQ 83 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | 10.1 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#35) | 2.31 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#38) | 2.68 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#25) | 0.565 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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