Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -4000 CMU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -20.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -16.9 (-4.9) | 156.7 (+1.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -17.1 (-5.1) | 157.2 (+0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -18.6 (-6.6) | 158.8 (-0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -18.8 (-6.8) | 156.2 (+1.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CMU 75 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CMU 73 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BUF 75 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | BUF 76 – 64 CMU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BUF 63 – 35 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 7-16 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 3-13 |
| Home | 8-3 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#72) | -10.1 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#162) | -1.95 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#138) | -2.18 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#163) | 0.398 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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