Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | NICH -800 HCU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -10.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -10.2 (+4.8) | 153.8 (-2.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -9.7 (+5.3) | 154.2 (-3.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -11.2 (+3.8) | 154.0 (-3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -10.1 (+4.9) | 154.1 (-3.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | HCU 72 – 68 NICH |
| Dec 18, 2025 | NICH 79 – 64 HCU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NICH 75 – 67 HCU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NICH 83 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NICH 98 – 94 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 6-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 4-11 |
| Home | 8-1 | 4-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#209) | -11.1 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#169) | -2.64 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#197) | -3.28 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#164) | 0.411 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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