Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -125 ALA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -0.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.2 (+12.8) | 156.6 (-9.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -1.9 (+13.1) | 157.3 (-10.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.1 (+12.9) | 157.9 (-10.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.0 (+13.0) | 155.8 (-8.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ALA 117 – 115 ARK |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ALA 85 – 81 ARK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALA 92 – 88 ARK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | ALA 86 – 83 ARK |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ALA 84 – 69 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 26-7 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 16-2 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#14) | 17.6 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#22) | 2.76 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#27) | 3.56 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#25) | 0.632 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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