Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +600 FSU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +17 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -12.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -11.2 (-5.8) | 147.4 (+11.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -11.5 (-5.5) | 144.8 (+14.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -10.0 (-7.0) | 146.2 (+12.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -10.8 (-6.2) | 147.4 (+11.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 11-4 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-1 |
| Away | 1-8 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#154) | 15.5 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#163) | 2.86 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#160) | 3.60 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#229) | 0.611 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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