Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -1200 WCU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -13.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -12.6 (-13.6) | 145.3 (+15.7) | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -11.1 (-12.1) | 145.3 (+15.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -12.8 (-13.8) | 146.8 (+14.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -12.8 (-13.8) | 145.5 (+15.5) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-13 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-5 |
| Away | 10-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#96) | -5.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#84) | -0.77 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#92) | -0.96 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#65) | 0.452 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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