Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -275 FRES +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -6.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -5.1 (-8.1) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -4.2 (-7.2) | 128.5 (+2.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -4.9 (-7.9) | 131.0 (+0.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -5.1 (-8.1) | 133.5 (-2.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#178) | -5.0 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#164) | -0.12 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#173) | -0.24 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#171) | 0.495 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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