Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -225 SC +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +21 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -5.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -5.5 (+15.5) | 145.7 (-28.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -4.2 (+16.8) | 144.2 (-27.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -6.1 (+14.9) | 145.0 (-28.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -6.0 (+15.0) | 146.3 (-29.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SC 97 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MSST 65 – 60 SC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MSST 85 – 50 SC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SC 93 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SC 68 – 62 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 6-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 3-6 |
| Away | 5-4 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#78) | 3.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#94) | 0.35 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#84) | 0.66 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#128) | 0.500 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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