Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MER -150 UTC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MER -4.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -4.3 (-0.3) | 143.5 (+14.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -2.0 (+2.0) | 140.4 (+17.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -3.9 (+0.1) | 144.5 (+13.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -4.5 (-0.5) | 143.4 (+14.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 18-8 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#114) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#132) | 0.97 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#123) | 0.99 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.552 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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