Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +110 XAV -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.6 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.1 (+13.9) | 140.3 (+10.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.4 (+14.6) | 141.0 (+10.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.8 (+14.2) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.7 (+14.3) | 141.1 (+9.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 13-8 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 6-7 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#79) | 10.2 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#75) | 2.07 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#72) | 2.42 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#112) | 0.578 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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