Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -700 WKU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +24 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -14.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.5 (+8.5) | 140.4 (-2.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.1 (+10.9) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -15.2 (+8.8) | 137.7 (+0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -15.2 (+8.8) | 139.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 8-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#6) | 5.7 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#7) | 2.10 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#8) | 2.32 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#9) | 0.586 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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