Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -188 IOWA +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -2.2 (+19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -5.0 (+17.0) | 157.1 (-21.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -3.1 (+18.9) | 153.2 (-17.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -5.4 (+16.6) | 153.9 (-17.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -5.2 (+16.8) | 154.8 (-18.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MICH 71 – 68 IOWA |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MICH 85 – 83 IOWA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | IOWA 88 – 78 MICH |
| Dec 10, 2023 | MICH 90 – 80 IOWA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | IOWA 93 – 84 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 83.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#5) | 20.0 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.39 (#3) | 2.90 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.49 (#3) | 4.16 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#2) | 0.582 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 2.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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