Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | EKU +300 BEL -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -5.6 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.8 (+17.8) | 159.5 (-11.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -2.4 (+16.4) | 156.6 (-8.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -2.6 (+16.6) | 158.8 (-10.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -3.4 (+17.4) | 161.3 (-13.3) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2021 | BEL 92 – 74 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-7 | 26-4 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 9-4 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 81.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#160) | 8.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#148) | 2.18 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#196) | 1.97 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#123) | 0.571 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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