Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -175 LMU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -2.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -2.1 (-9.1) | 145.2 (+9.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -1.0 (-8.0) | 142.1 (+12.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -2.1 (-9.1) | 145.6 (+9.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -2.5 (-9.5) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PEPP 90 – 89 LMU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | LMU 93 – 82 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LMU 69 – 60 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PEPP 72 – 63 LMU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 7-5 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-3 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | 3.1 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#108) | 1.24 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#121) | 1.24 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#109) | 0.538 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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