Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | JXST +163 MUR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -0.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -1.3 (+11.7) | 137.7 (+23.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -0.9 (+12.1) | 135.0 (+26.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -1.3 (+11.7) | 136.9 (+24.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -1.4 (+11.6) | 138.9 (+22.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2021 | JXST 68 – 65 MUR |
| Jan 22, 2021 | JXST 85 – 82 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-9 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#181) | 1.7 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#170) | -0.84 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#193) | -1.01 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.467 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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