Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MSU +170 OSU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -7.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -4.8 (+8.8) | 147.1 (-9.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -5.4 (+9.4) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -4.9 (+8.9) | 146.5 (-8.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -5.1 (+9.1) | 148.3 (-10.3) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSU 66 – 60 OSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MSU 69 – 62 OSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | OSU 60 – 57 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | OSU 68 – 58 MSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MSU 84 – 78 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#77) | 17.5 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#55) | 3.25 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#36) | 4.58 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#127) | 0.626 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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