Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CP +250 UCD -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -7.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -6.0 (-2.0) | 137.6 (-7.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -6.7 (-1.3) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -5.3 (-2.7) | 138.1 (-8.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.8 (-2.2) | 139.2 (-9.2) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-20 | 10-8 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 6-4 |
| Home | 3-8 | 4-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#339) | -5.5 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#326) | -0.46 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#324) | -0.97 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.350 (#345) | 0.493 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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