Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +130 UCSB -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -0.0 (-4.0) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.7 (-3.3) | 134.6 (+5.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.1 (-3.9) | 137.4 (+2.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.6 (-3.4) | 137.4 (+2.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 13-3 |
| Home | 5-4 | 11-0 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#101) | 9.2 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#173) | 1.66 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | 1.78 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#227) | 0.602 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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