Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -163 BGSU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -4.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -5.5 (-17.5) | 152.6 (+1.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -4.8 (-16.8) | 153.5 (+0.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -4.8 (-16.8) | 155.7 (-1.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -5.5 (-17.5) | 154.0 (-0.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | AKR 77 – 67 BGSU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | AKR 96 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | AKR 71 – 68 BGSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AKR 83 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | AKR 74 – 70 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 14-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-1 | 4-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#106) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#91) | 0.17 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#95) | 0.21 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#78) | 0.502 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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