Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +140 GTWN -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -1.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -0.5 (-8.5) | 135.6 (-7.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -0.1 (-8.1) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -0.4 (-8.4) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -0.1 (-7.9) | 135.5 (-7.5) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GTWN 63 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 29, 2026 | GTWN 70 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DEP 56 – 50 GTWN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | DEP 71 – 67 GTWN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DEP 83 – 77 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-14 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 2-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-5 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#137) | 5.4 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#167) | 1.01 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#148) | 1.37 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#277) | 0.522 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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