Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -250 MARQ +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -6.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.9 (+12.1) | 135.7 (+6.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.5 (+12.5) | 132.2 (+9.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.0 (+12.0) | 133.1 (+8.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.3 (+11.7) | 135.4 (+6.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 8-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#34) | 7.3 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#45) | 1.37 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#36) | 1.90 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#51) | 0.519 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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