Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +1400 ACU -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +2 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -19.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -15.3 (+17.3) | 144.8 (+21.2) | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -12.1 (+14.1) | 146.3 (+19.7) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -16.1 (+18.1) | 147.7 (+18.3) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -16.2 (+18.2) | 146.4 (+19.6) | 14% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2021 | ACU 93 – 58 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-19 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 13-2 |
| Home | 4-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 61.6 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#333) | 8.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#342) | 1.38 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.43 (#341) | 1.62 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#286) | 0.548 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 27.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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