Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -2500 AF +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +23 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -23.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -18.8 (+4.2) | 137.8 (-16.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -16.7 (+6.3) | 133.4 (-12.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -18.0 (+5.0) | 136.3 (-15.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -18.7 (+4.3) | 137.0 (-16.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-1 | 3-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#61) | -11.2 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#37) | -1.55 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#58) | -2.11 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#15) | 0.412 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 23.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 4.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 15.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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