Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -250 ILL +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -2.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -0.8 (-4.2) | 139.1 (+3.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -1.6 (-3.4) | 136.2 (+6.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.3 (-4.7) | 138.6 (+4.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.3 (-4.7) | 138.1 (+4.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#18) | 19.7 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#23) | 2.87 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#14) | 4.17 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#67) | 0.601 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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