Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +170 CREI -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -3.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -1.4 (+9.4) | 147.0 (-1.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -1.5 (+9.5) | 146.7 (-0.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -0.7 (+8.7) | 148.3 (-2.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.1 (+9.1) | 146.7 (-0.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#58) | 15.2 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#47) | 2.54 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#54) | 3.35 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#49) | 0.567 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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