Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UK -110 FLA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -1.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -0.5 (-4.5) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -0.4 (-4.4) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -0.3 (-4.3) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -0.5 (-4.5) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | FLA 71 – 63 UK |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UK 106 – 100 FLA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FLA 94 – 91 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 5-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#59) | 13.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#84) | 2.15 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#68) | 2.74 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#84) | 0.590 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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