Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ALST +550 TXSO -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +10 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -11.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -9.9 (-0.1) | 137.6 (+24.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -7.3 (-2.7) | 136.0 (+26.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -8.2 (-1.8) | 140.6 (+21.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -8.9 (-1.1) | 138.1 (+23.9) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | TXSO 96 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ALST 84 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | TXSO 56 – 55 ALST |
| Jan 24, 2023 | TXSO 71 – 65 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-3 |
| Home | 3-6 | 8-2 |
| Away | 1-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -18.6 (#344) | -4.8 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#335) | -0.26 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#338) | -1.00 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#342) | 0.504 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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