Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +170 TXSO -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -0.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.5 (-6.5) | 143.3 (-7.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -0.0 (-6.0) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.1 (-6.1) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.2 (-6.2) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | TXSO 96 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ALST 84 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | TXSO 56 – 55 ALST |
| Jan 25, 2022 | TXSO 73 – 66 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-18 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#345) | -7.6 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#298) | -1.72 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#308) | -2.23 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#317) | 0.428 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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