Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -185 TXSO +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -5.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -3.6 (-14.6) | 149.6 (-0.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -3.1 (-14.1) | 149.5 (-0.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -3.1 (-14.1) | 145.4 (+3.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.7 (-14.7) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | TXSO 96 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ALST 84 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 30, 2024 | TXSO 56 – 55 ALST |
| Jan 24, 2023 | TXSO 71 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 25, 2022 | TXSO 73 – 66 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#280) | -9.3 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#273) | -1.53 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#276) | -1.89 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#288) | 0.426 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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