Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TXSO -213 ALST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +1 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -2.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.1 (+1.1) | 137.3 (-26.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -1.4 (-0.4) | 135.1 (-24.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -0.4 (+0.6) | 132.9 (-21.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -0.7 (+0.3) | 133.6 (-22.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | TXSO 96 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ALST 84 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 24, 2023 | TXSO 71 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 25, 2022 | TXSO 73 – 66 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#292) | -5.6 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#289) | -0.20 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#304) | -0.54 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#266) | 0.493 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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