Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -120 ALST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -0.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.2 (-4.8) | 139.1 (+23.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -0.3 (-5.3) | 138.8 (+24.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -0.2 (-5.2) | 135.9 (+27.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.2 (-4.8) | 135.7 (+27.3) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | TXSO 96 – 64 ALST |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | TXSO 56 – 55 ALST |
| Jan 24, 2023 | TXSO 71 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 25, 2022 | TXSO 73 – 66 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#283) | -6.9 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#314) | -1.10 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#291) | -1.82 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#251) | 0.478 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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