Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -700 ALST +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -13.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -12.0 (-5.0) | 138.4 (+0.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -12.8 (-5.8) | 139.4 (-0.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -12.0 (-5.0) | 140.0 (-1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -12.5 (-5.5) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | TXSO 96 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ALST 84 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | TXSO 56 – 55 ALST |
| Jan 24, 2023 | TXSO 71 – 65 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-2 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#137) | -8.9 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#231) | -2.34 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#195) | -2.88 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#218) | 0.387 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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