Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -142 ALST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +32 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -0.9 (+32.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.2 (+32.2) | 153.7 (+6.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.2 (+33.2) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -0.2 (+31.8) | 149.9 (+10.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.2 (+32.2) | 151.9 (+8.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | ALST 84 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | TXSO 56 – 55 ALST |
| Jan 24, 2023 | TXSO 71 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 25, 2022 | TXSO 73 – 66 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -14.0 (#346) | -9.9 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#342) | -1.61 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#343) | -2.06 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#344) | 0.420 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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