Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MSST +230 ALA -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -6.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.8 (-1.2) | 144.4 (-21.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -1.9 (-3.1) | 144.5 (-21.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.9 (-2.1) | 146.3 (-23.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.6 (-1.4) | 144.9 (-21.9) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 26-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#76) | 17.1 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#87) | 2.66 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#84) | 3.42 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#126) | 0.625 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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