Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | WCU +220 MER -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +24 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MER -6.4 (+30.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -5.0 (+29.0) | 152.9 (-6.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -4.9 (+28.9) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -6.0 (+30.0) | 154.5 (-8.5) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -5.0 (+29.0) | 153.4 (-7.4) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 8-9 |
| Home | 6-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#253) | 3.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#213) | 0.58 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#227) | 0.83 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#233) | 0.523 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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