Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | IDST +115 MONT -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +1 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -3.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -2.6 (+1.6) | 131.6 (-14.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -1.3 (+0.3) | 129.3 (-12.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -2.3 (+1.3) | 131.9 (-14.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -2.6 (+1.6) | 131.5 (-14.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#280) | -1.6 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#289) | -1.10 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#304) | -1.25 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#279) | 0.482 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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