Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +160 UNI -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +7 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -1.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+35.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.4 (-8.4) | 141.9 (+39.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -0.2 (-6.8) | 137.0 (+44.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -1.0 (-8.0) | 140.5 (+40.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -1.4 (-8.4) | 141.4 (+39.6) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ILST 71 – 69 UNI |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNI 68 – 65 ILST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#214) | -1.9 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#250) | -0.74 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#245) | -0.82 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#254) | 0.480 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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